Just for kicks, decided to analyze the players in the Cubs AA and AAA last year. It's purely a stats-based analysis. As a result of what I saw, I think Hoffpauir should be kept up since he doesn't have anything more to prove at the minor league level. Depending on how James Adduci does at AAA in the future, he might be a leadoff possibility eventually. Brad Snyder is another guy to watch for.
This is not necessarily a thorough analysis, and more weighted towards AAA players, and specifically those who jumped out at me.
Findings were as follows:HITTERS
-Micah Hoffpauir: Consistently high SLG and OBP above average but wasn't spectacular except in 2008, so might be prone to streakiness.
-Bobby Scales: Good OBP but nothing special in terms of speed. Unusual power development late in his career, went quickly from a .400 slugger to a .470 one, who would hit 1-5 HRs to one with 10-15. May need to watch for steroids from this one.
-Andres Blanco: Poor offensive capabilities in the minors, but a single strong season of 64 games in the minors got him sent up to the majors last year. Don't expect much offense from this guy. Decent range but bad fielding. I don't understand the hype over this one.
-Starlin Castro: Stealing bases pretty well at AA but stats aren't anything special. Great range but bad fielding %. Doesn't look like he'll be a slugger but if he can improve his OBP might be a contributor at the top of the lineup in the future.
-John-Ford Griffin: Like Colvin, shows signs of high power but many strikeouts as well. Has reached base well in some years but overall is just slightly above average, with decent production. Needs to be more consistent in reaching base. Decent-fielding outfielder.
-Brad Snyder: Power-hitting outfielder who reached base well at the lower levels but not so much AAA. Decent production, can steal 10-20 bases, and plays a good CF. Might be a guy to call up at some point.
-James Adduci: Batting for average and reaching base well with good speed on the bases for AA. May need to see what he can do at AAA first, but might be able to help the Cubs at the top at some point.
PITCHING
-Jeremy Papelbon: Had a good ERA until he got to AAA and got roughed up in 2 games. Walked 2, struck out 2, and may have been overthrowing. Good strikeout numbers but may need more poise.
-Jeff Samardzija: Solid but unimpressive minor league career exclusively as a starter. Concerning the majors, in 2008 was rarely used for more than 25 pitches, and when he was, his strikeouts were well down and opponents reached base much better against him. In 2009, showed signs of doing better on more days of rest. May need to be converted exclusively to relief and given more rest with lower pitching counts.
-Randy Wells: After solid performances at each level of the minors made steady improvements each year at AAA. Appeared to be pitching more successfully as a starter than a reliever at the higher levels. High strikeouts, gives up a hit an inning, decent walk numbers. Be careful of converting this one to relief as he might begin struggling.
-Angel Guzman: Interestingly keeps getting used as a starter in the minors though a reliever at the major league level. Has struggled at the AAA level as a starter (4.58 ERA) and may need conversion to a reliever if back at the AAA level at any point. Strikes out a batter an inning with low walk numbers, but giving up about a hit an inning too. May need to expand the strike zone more with 2 strikes and ahead in the count.
-Jose Ascanio: Had a good ERA in AA as a reliever and converted well as a starter last year in AAA after struggling a bit in AAA as a closer in 2008. Judging by last year's performance appears to be major league ready as a reliever and should see some time in the majors soon so we can get a better idea where he's at in terms of MLB progression. At AAA, has about a strikeout an inning, gives up about a hit an inning, and walks a batter every 3 innings.
-Andrew Cashner: Solid minor league career and may be AAA ready right now. Decent strikeouts so far and giving up a walk every other inning. Gives up very few HRs and not too many hits yet. Should be interesteing to see how he develops at AAA. From the stats, tough to understand the hype but appears a very solid young starter.
-Justin Berg: Had pitched average at best in the minors as a reliever until 2009 when he converted to a reliever surprisingly well with a 2.43 ERA through 37 games at AAA. Continued pitching VERY well at the MLB level through 11 games with a 0.75 ERA. Does not appear to have any potential as a starting pitcher at this point but should definitely be given future opportunities as a reliever for evaluation. Not an overpowering strikeout pitcher and walks a hitter every other inning; may need to work on control a bit.
-Esmailin Caridad: This 24-year old showed up in 2008 making RAPID strides. Went from A+ to AA that year, pitching extremely well in AA, and after a solid year in AAA had a good performance in the majors. Appears to have a lot of potential, striking out a lot of batters while keeping his walks pretty low. Did go through the minors as a starter, and may have potential in the rotation as well. Should be given more opportunities at the major league level, perhaps a rare spot start as well.
-Neal Cotts: Pitches well in relief at the AAA level. However, appears to be getting hit much harder in the majors because of being brought in as a lefty specialist for over half the time. Lefties hit .318/.483/.773 off him last year while righties hit just .304/.385/.393. This held true for his MLB career too, with lefties hitting him .253/.335/.456 compared to righties batting .248/.353/.405. If anything, should be used as a righty specialist in the majors and kept away from the lefties who slug very well against him. Appears to have been a case of poor manager usage of him at the major league level.
-John Gaub: VERY promising young reliever. Has climbed each level of the minors very rapidly and had an impressive AAA year in 2009. Striking out about 1.5 batters an inning and giving up very few Home Runs, but is walking a batter every other inning. May need another year in AAA to work on his control but looks very, very impressive.
-J.R. Mathes: Shows steady improvement at AAA as a starter, dropping his ERA each year. Hardly overpowering with strikeouts but walks are few and far between with this guy on the hill, yet is giving up well over a hit an inning. Like Guzman, may need to expand the zone more with 2 strikes and ahead in the count.
-Jay Jackson: Very good minor league career for this young starter. Appears to be AAA ready and is advancing very quickly. Striking out over a hitter an inning, below a hit an inning, and a walk about every 3 innings, this guy might be special, but will need to see how he handles AAA first.
-Jason Waddell: Solid 3.00-4.00 ERA at every level of the minors for years. Just 1 year in AAA and may need more time there to show what he can do, but may also be major league ready. Expect about a strikeout an inning, a hit an inning, and a walk every 3 innings. Solid minor league reliever but uncertain whether he's spent enough time at AAA or is MLB ready. Might be a low 4.00 ERA reliever at MLB level at some point.
-Vince Perkins: After advancing through the minors with decent but unimpressive stats as a starter, has converted well as a reliever at AAA. A lot of K's, a lot of BBs, a lot of Hits. May need to fine tune his approach. Shows more promise as a reliever, but could still start as well.
-David Patton: Struggling more at the upper levels, and appears to have advanced too far too fast. May not even be AAA ready yet.
-Casey Fossum: Aging starter has pitched decently but not impressively in AAA. Likewise does not appear to be more than a sub-par 5th starter at the major league level. Even with his 2.25 ERA MLB year for the Mets in 2009 was still giving up 9 hits and 9 walks each 9 innings.
-Mitch Atkins: Did well in the lower levels as a starter but may have hit a wall in AAA in terms of development as one. If kept at the AAA level should be considered for conversion to a reliever, a la Justin Berg, to see if he improves. Striking out a lot of hitters with decent walk numbers, is giving up almost a hit an inning too, and more than that at the AAA level.
-Greg Reinhard: Struggled at AAA last year and was unimpressive at AA before that. May need more time in AA.
-James Russell: Struggled at AA as a starter, but was moved to AAA after converting to relief and is having better success. Decent but unimpressive in strikeouts, gives up over a hit an inning, but has ridiculously few walks. May be challenging hitters too much with 2 strikes/ahead in the count.
