Analysis: 2006, Reason For Failure - Starting Pitching

If you look back at 2006, what killed us was starting pitching. We had only a few pitchers who we were winning at least half their games when they pitched (.500 winning %). 

When everyone else (Maddux, Rusch, Guzman, Prior, Wood, Williams, Ryu, Walrond, Mateo, Miller) pitched, we were 18-56 with a .243 winning %.

Otherwise, we were 48-40 between Zambrano, Marshall, Hill, Marmol, and O'Malley a .545 winning % which, to put it in perspective, would be good for 88 wins over an entire season. You could predict the team's success primarily by which starting pitcher was pitching.

To decide which players were problematic for the team, I went by a very simple benchmark, how the team did when those players were on the field.  I looked at how the Cubs did with certain pitchers starting, or certain hitters starting in the lineup.  

I also looked at how the team did before and after certain hitters got traded, or how the team did when those players were or weren't on the DL. The biggest difference was for Phil Nevin's acquisition (.554 Winning % in starts), and we did better when Derrek Lee (.467), Ryan Theriot (.469), Matt Murton (.434), and Todd Walker (.432) were starting in the lineup, and when Ronny Cedeno (.396) and Jacque Jones (.396) weren't.

However, the primary determinant of the team's success were the starting pitchers.  Carlos Zambrano was the only truly effective starting pitcher; even if he didn't always get credit for the wins, we were winning over 60% of all the games he started.  With Marshall, Hill, or Marmol starting we had a 50% chance of winning the game.  

With any other starter (with the exception of Ryan O'Malley who started just 2 games), we were losing more than we won, to the overall tune of a .243 winning %, which to put it in perspective, is a 40-122 win-loss record.  

MORAL OF THE STORY:  Cubs need to focus on starting pitching, and getting superstar starting pitching.  We keep overspending on offenseless shortstops and aging outfielders, yet have passed up opportunities to acquire Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, and C.C. Sabathia so we could pursue the likes of Alfonso Soriano, Milton Bradley, Jacque Jones, and Marlon Byrd with multi-million dollar contracts.

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PITCHING

Carlos Zambrano
Record in starts: 20-13, .606 Winning %
Record otherwise: 46-83, .357 Winning %

Sean Marshall
Record in starts: 12-12, .500 Winning %
Record otherwise: 54-84, .391 Winning %

Rich Hill
Record in starts: 8-8, .500 Winning %
Record otherwise: 58-88, .397 Winning %

Carlos Marmol (2.51 ERA, 5-0 in wins; 10.67 ERA, 0-7 in losses)
Record in starts: 7-6, .538 Winning %
Record otherwise: 59-90, .396 Winning %
Record in relief: 1-5, .167 Winning %

Ryan O'Malley
Record in starts: 1-1, .500 Winning %

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Greg Maddux
Before Trade: 43-60, .417 Winning %
After Trade: 23-36, .390 Winning %
Record in starts: 9-13, .409 Winning %
Record otherwise: 57-83, .407 Winning %

Kerry Wood
Record in starts: 1-3, .250 Winning %

Glendon Rusch
Record in starts: 3-6, .333 Winning %
Record otherwise: 63-90, .412 Winning %
Record in relief: 1-15, .063 Winning % 
Record otherwise: 65-81, .445 Winning %

Angel Guzman
Record in starts: 0-10, .000 Winning %
Record otherwise: 66-86, .434 Winning %
Record in relief: 1-4, .200 Winning %

Mark Prior
Record in starts: 1-8, .111 Winning %

Jerome Williams
Record in starts: 0-2, .000 Winning %
Record in relief: 1-2 Winning %

Jae Kuk Ryu
Record in starts: 0-1, .000 Winning %
Record in relief: 3-6, .333 Winning %

Les Walrond
Record in starts: 0-2, .000 Winning %
Record in relief: 1-7, .125 Winning %

Juan Mateo
Record in starts: 2-8, .200 Winning %
Record in relief: 0-1, .000 Winning %

Wade Miller
Record in starts: 2-3, .400 Winning %

Maddux, Rusch, Guzman, Prior, Wood, Williams, Ryu, Walrond, Mateo, Miller
Record in starts: 18-56, .243 Winning %

Record otherwise: 48-40, .545 Winning %

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HITTING 

Todd Walker
Before Trade: 43-62, .410 Winning %
After Trade: 23-34, .404 Winning %
Record in starts: 35-46, .432 Winning %
Record in appearances: 37-57 Winning %
 
Michael Barrett
Injured: June 16-29, 3-10 Winning %
Injured: September 3-October 3, 11-16 Winning %
When playing: 52-70, .426 Winning %
When injured: 14-26, .350 Winning %
Record in appearances: 42-65, .393 Winning %
Record in starts: 40-57, .412 Winning %

Derrek Lee
Injured: April 20-June 24, 21-38 Winning %
Injured: July 24-August 27, 17-16 Winning %
Injured: September 15-29, 6-7 Winning %
When playing: 22-35, .386 Winning %
When injured: 44-61, .419 Winning %
Record in appearances: 21-29, .420 Winning %
Record in starts: 21-24, .467 Winning %

Ryan Theriot
Record in appearances: 22-31, .415 Winning %
Record in starts: 15-17, .469 Winning %

Ronny Cedeno
Record in appearances: 60-91, .397 Winning %
Record in starts: 57-87, .396 Winning %

Jacque Jones
Record in appearances: 60-89 Winning %
Record in starts: 55-84, .396 Winning %

Matt Murton
Record in appearances: 60-84 Winning %
Record in starts: 53-69, .434 Winning %

Phil Nevin
Record in appearances: 67-62, .519 Winning %
Record in starts: 56-45, .554 Winning %

NOTE-Couldn't really figure it out for Aramis Ramirez and Juan Pierre since they played all or virtually all of the games.