Cubs Player Analysis: Tom Gorzelanny

Took a look at Gorzelanny to see if there's any redeeming qualities about his stats.

www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=gorzeto01&year=Career&t=p

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-In his wins (29 Games, 26 Games Started) had a 2.24 ERA through 173 IP.
-In his losses (28 G, 27 GS) had an 8.42 ERA through 133.2 IP.
-In his no decisions (19 GS) had a 4.41 ERA through 102 IP. 9 of these were quality starts (2.79 ERA) and the other 10 were bad (6.52 ERA). (Figured this out manually to avoid all the relief decisions)

So in other words, about 36% of his starts he'll be really, really good and probably win (2.24 ERA). Another 13% of the time he should pitch well enough to win (2.80 ERA). About 37% of his starts he'll be really, really, stinking bad (8.42 ERA). And in 14% of his starts he'll pitch really poorly but not get credit for the loss (6.52 ERA). If you don't mind having a starter who'll be good enough to win in half his starts, but get annihilated in the other half, I guess Gorzo's the guy for you.

Gorzelanny from his stats appears to fit the nursery rhyme, "when he's good, he's really really good, but when he's bad, he's awful." Seems like an all or nothing pitcher who will be one extreme or the other at pretty much a 50-50 split.
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Opponents in the 1st inning are hitting .297/.375/.502 off him and .272/.337/.442 in the 2nd inning his career.

In his first 25 pitches, opponents are hitting .288/.364/.484, .245/.325/.370 for pitches 26-50, and .289/.364/.428 for pitches 51-75.

Good hitting teams who get to him early can really knock him out fast. That he gets hit that hard both in pitches 1-25 and 51-75 suggests to me he's not getting out the top of the order hitters well, and just getting the lower order hitters out. As such, to have more success he may need to stay on the outside part of the plate more to the good hitters at the top and then pitch regularly to the others.

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-Has a 4.36 ERA through 32 GS on 4 days rest.
-Has a 5.47 ERA through 27 GS on 5 days rest.
-Has a 4.52 ERA through 12 GS on 6+ days rest.

Tough to tell much from this, except maybe to not start him on 5 days rest as opposed to 4 or 6. But at least there's not the dramatic shift with Harden of doing much better on more days rest, though neither is there the Zambrano shift where he does better on fewer days rest.

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-Has a 1.69 ERA in 2 G, 1 start against the Pirates.
-Has a 3.82 ERA in 6 starts against the Cardinals.
-Has a 4.84 ERA in 13 G, 10 starts against the Brewers.
-Has a 5.01 ERA in 7 G, 6 starts against the Astros.
-Has a 6.00 ERA in 6 starts against the Reds.

Might deliver well against the Cardinals but doesn't look that promising against division opponents.
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-Righties in his career hit .279/.359/.448 through 1539 PAs.
-Lefties in his career bat .232/.300/.334 through 328 PAs.

Tough to tell because of the small sample size for lefties, which may be because he was used more against lefties as a reliever, but he might have value as a lefty specialist. However, that small sample size also suggests opposing teams realize this and are stacking up righties against him for when he starts.

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